Thursday, 14 February 2008

2007_09_01_archive



Only Inconsistent With Neoclassical Economics

Robert Schiller is at it again, claiming that bubbles are inconsistent

with economic theory, and therefore tries to go outside the realm of

economics.

"Economists, in particular those at the Federal Reserve, are loathe to

believe asset markets have become bubbles because bubbles seem

inconsistent with rational investor and consumer behavior, the bedrock

of economic analysis. "The notion of a speculative bubble is

inherently sociological or social-psychological, and does not lend

itself to study with the essential toolbag of economists,""

He may be right that they are inconsistent with neoclassical economic

theory, but he need not leave the field of economics to explain them.

All he need to do is study Austrian economics, or more specifically

the Austrian business cycle theory.

And besides, going into sociology or socio-psychology doesn't really

solve the problem if you intend to remain comitted to neoclassical

assumptions. The neoclassical theory has a implicit

sociological/socio-psychological theory about the hyper-rational

investor, which cannot be changed unless you're gonna change

neoclassical theories. Particularly if you're also going to remain

committed to neoclassical theories about the neutrality of money and

the impossibility that central bank actions will create situations

where it could be economically rational for investors to create

bubbles, but economically irrational for society as a whole, as the


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